Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
